Weekly Pick: DIN
Clean entry. Defined risk.
DIN has scored Tier 1 in my model for weeks. Like others I’m tracking, the daily trend remained intact, but price was extended and the entry didn’t make sense, so I waited.
The recent pullback has brought price into heavier support across multiple timeframes and it’s holding up. I now see better structure and less extension here than in most other Tier 1 names. This is a continuation trade on a shorter time frame and a recovery trade on longer time frames.
Company Overview
Dine Brands Global Inc operates the Applebee’s and IHOP restaurant brands, with a predominantly franchised model and broad U.S. consumer exposure.
Fundamentals & Ownership
Market capitalization $496M.
Current p/e 15.38 | Forward p/e 7.18; Low valuation relative to peers.
Balance sheet is highly levered with ~$1.6B total debt.
Franchise-heavy model with stable cash flow characteristics.
Institutions hold a majority of the float.
Short interest is elevated at 15.9% which is extra fuel for an already constructive technical setup.
Technicals
On the Daily, price is sitting on the 50 EMA, which has acted as durable support going back to November. This is deeper, heavier support than the faster averages.
On the Weekly, DIN has held the 8 EMA consistently since November. The intermediate trend remains intact.
On the Monthly, price has pulled back significantly toward the 21 EMA, leaving the stock far less extended than many other Tier 1 names.
Bottom line: strong multi-timeframe support with defined risk.
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
Risks
Consumer discretionary exposure in a fragile market environment.
Market volatility.
If price loses the Daily 50 EMA, the setup degrades quickly.
How I’m Trading It
I’m trading this primarily with shares and I’ll be layering in some June $35 calls. Risk is defined below the 50 EMA on the Daily which has been supportive since November. If it continues to base above support I’ll be patient. Consistent with my trading recently, I’ll be selling quickly into strength and recycling back to cash.
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Solid read on DIN's multi-timeframe structure! The 50 EMA on daily holding since November gives solid conviction for a continuation play. I've noticed similar setups get traction when short interest is elevated and technical levels align this cleanly, especially in consumer names that aren't totally extended. The franchise model cash flow plus 15% SI makes this one feel like it has room to run if it holds above that daily 50.