Weekly Pick: DG
A quiet re-rating after a full reset
With a Tier 1 score, a bullish technical setup on all time frames and enormous upside potential now that it’s recovering, Dollar General is my weekly swing trade pick. DG spent the last few years getting taken apart. Margins compressed. Execution slipped. Sentiment collapsed. The stock did a full round trip from hero to pariah.
What matters now is that the punishment phase looks finished, the repair phase has started, and the risk/reward is skewed in my favor. That’s the window I care about.
Dollar General Corp ($DG)
Dollar General is a mature discount retailer with a massive footprint in value-oriented and underserved markets. The business is simple. High traffic. Low price points. Everyday consumables.
Fundamentals and Ownership
DG is still profitable. Still cash-generative. Still institutionally owned.
The drawdown wasn’t caused by financial stress or leverage. It was caused by execution issues and margin pressure. Those problems don’t need to reverse completely for the stock to work. They just need to stop getting worse.
Market capitalization $30.22B.
Reasonable valuation: Current p/e 23.70 | Forward p/e 19.27.
Institutions have 97% of the float.
Technicals
This is where the setup gets interesting.
Above the EMA stack on all time frames.
On the Daily, a consolidating PEG flag following their 12/4 ER.
Above the 200EMA on the Weekly and Monthly for the first time since mid-2023.
RSI on the Monthly shows plenty of room to run.
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
Risks
This isn’t risk-free.
Loss of the Weekly 200 EMA.
A hard rejection near recent highs with expanding volume.
Renewed margin pressure that reopens the bear case.
How I’m Trading It
Shares only. I’m treating DG as a longer-term recovery play, not a short-term momentum trade.
Starter position here, add on strength or consolidation. I’m comfortable sitting through noise as long as the weekly structure holds. Risk defined by a loss of longer term trend, not daily volatility.
No fixed upside target. Strong names get room.
I trade what I post.
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